No theory forbids me to say "Ah!" or "Ugh!", but it forbids me the bogus theorization of my "Ah!" and "Ugh!" - the value judgments. - Theodor Julius Geiger (1960)


Contents in keywords:

  • Risks are an inevitable part of human activities, and managing them involves understanding their probability, consequences, and context within society and law.
  • Risk management includes identifying potential adverse events, modeling and quantifying their consequences, and making value judgments.
  • Probability is difficult to observe or measure directly, and models are necessary to estimate risk and make predictions about future events.
  • Understanding the causes and consequences of failures requires looking at the system's broader context, which includes human beings, technology, and the environment.
  • Understanding and analyzing systems to prevent accidents, includes considering external influences, and uncertainty, like unexpected events, and incomplete knowledge.
  • Having both static and dynamic barriers, and having control loops and learning cycles in managing risk effectively is important.
  • Risk evaluations should be conducted from the design phase on.
  • Human factors, like confusion, as well as the existence of automatic skills and rules, can contribute to accidents.
  • In the absence of data, expert opinions can be sought, but expert biases and guesswork may occur.



Ale, B. (2009), Risk: An Introduction, Abingdon: Routledge.